Representation of precipitation and top-of-atmosphere radiation in a multi-model convection-permitting ensemble for the Lake Victoria Basin (East-Africa)

Abstract The CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study ELVIC (climate Extremes in the Lake VICtoria basin) was recently established to investigate how extreme weather events will evolve this region of world and provide improved information for climate impact community. Here we assess added value convection-permitting scale simulations on representation moist convective systems over around Victoria. With aim, 10 year present-day model were carried out with five regional models at both PARameterized (PAR) scales (12–25 km) Convection-Permitting (CP) (2.5–4.5 km), COSMO-CLM, RegCM, AROME, WRF UKMO. Most substantial systematic improvements found metrics related deep convection. For example, timing daily maximum precipitation is systematically delayed CP compared PAR models, thereby improving agreement observations. large overestimation total number rainy alleviated models. Systematic diurnal cycle Top-Of-Atmosphere (TOA) radiation some intensity. No unanimous improvement nor deterioration spatial distribution rainfall seasonal when going scale. Furthermore, biases TOA upward radiative fluxes remain. Generally our analysis indicates that strongly giving confidence are valuable tools studying may future Victoria basin its surroundings.